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Old 07-10-2014, 03:49 AM   #21
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I also have little faith in global climate models, but as undeniable as global warming in recent years is, sea level rising in recent years is also well documented. Extrapolating those trends doesn't paint a very pretty picture for places like NYC, or Florida, or any other low-lying coastal population centers.
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Old 07-10-2014, 03:53 AM   #22
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Extrapolating those trends doesn't paint a very pretty picture for places like NYC, or Florida, or any other low-lying coastal population centers.
You say that like it's a bad thing.
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Old 07-10-2014, 03:55 AM   #23
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Old 07-10-2014, 03:56 AM   #24
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Old 07-10-2014, 03:57 AM   #25
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Well, I will tell you this in my professional opinion*. The Earth has warmed of late. This is extremely well documented by multiple independent lines of evidence. The most recent few decades of warming up to about 17 years ago seems definitely historically abnormal.

Global climate models, on the other hand, are absolute bunk. I could give you a laundry list of their technical failings, but I will stick with the big one, which is epistemological. They are flat out unscientific. I repeat, they are not science. They are what we call scientism, which is simply pseudoscience dressed up as science by using the trappings of science, equations, measurements, models, etc. Global climate models are not scientific because their predictions of the distant future, ie a hundred years from now, cannot be falsified, save for waiting around for decades to test the predictions. And to the extent that we are already in the future previously predicted by the models, they have essentially been falsified.

*I have a Ph. D. in physics and do numerical simulation, mostly computational fluid dynamics and multiphysics, for a living.
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Old 07-10-2014, 05:38 AM   #26
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Well, I will tell you this in my professional opinion*. The Earth has warmed of late. This is extremely well documented by multiple independent lines of evidence. The most recent few decades of warming up to about 17 years ago seems definitely historically abnormal.

Global climate models, on the other hand, are absolute bunk. I could give you a laundry list of their technical failings, but I will stick with the big one, which is epistemological. They are flat out unscientific. I repeat, they are not science. They are what we call scientism, which is simply pseudoscience dressed up as science by using the trappings of science, equations, measurements, models, etc. Global climate models are not scientific because their predictions of the distant future, ie a hundred years from now, cannot be falsified, save for waiting around for decades to test the predictions. And to the extent that we are already in the future previously predicted by the models, they have essentially been falsified.

*I have a Ph. D. in physics and do numerical simulation, mostly computational fluid dynamics and multiphysics, for a living.
Can't argue with your basic points. But I don't agree that every single climate model is "absolute bunk", or, put differently, 0% accurate about everything, thats just hyperbole.

I made I living, prior to jumping on the internet bus, creating huge models to predict near term (up to a year) future business outcomes. Not big by weather standards, but 500,000,000 sample points, 300+ variables and another 100 or so heuristics was a lot of fun. We spent months "falsifying" them by running historical data through and then comparing the results to historical futures until we had it tuned as best as we could. Once it was running daily, we had a team of 12 PhDs whose full time job was designing ways to improve the accuracy by feedback of the actual results. The hardware the big one ran on had a street value of over $200,000,000, but we got a huge discount , I got free lunches for years and a trunk load of HP polos.

Not saying what we did was 100% accurate, far from it, if we got over 65% overall accuracy we jumped for joy, but it was by far the best thing on the planet at the time. The weekly ROI after deployment would pay for the whole thing. (And no, we weren't screwing with the stock market though I'd probably made a ton more money if we were.)

Obviously 100 years is a big difference from 1 year, but in Geological terms 100 years is probably under a minute in the time frame of the models I worked on, usually 3-5 years of history and 1 year of future data. The 1 year of future data fead several other models that would do dailies, weeklies, and longer term trends.

I'd rather have scientists trying to solve a problem as best they can then just sitting on their butts saying "Can't be done."

What I do hate hate is the way the media treats this stuff. A model predicts a sea rise of 2-16 inches in 2050 if the Greenland ice does this and the Ross Ice Shelf does that then the papers print something like"Climate scientists say Miami to be under 2 feet of water soon!".

I am also sick of the way many scientists speak of things as if they are facts when they simply are not. I gag every time I hear some TV Scientist say "We know" and "Big Bang" in the same sentence. This really discredits what science is all about in my mind.
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Old 07-10-2014, 05:51 AM   #27
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Oh yeah, I settled for owning a large man eating dawg today.
Welcome to the large man eating Dawg party! Beats the crap out of a Gun in most situations.
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Old 07-10-2014, 07:36 AM   #28
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While most don't dispute that there is a warming trend, long term data suggests that the earth goes through warm/cold cycles and has throughout history. What some do dispute is man-made warming. The fact that all of the the 'solutions' seem to line someones pockets, primarily at the expense of US citizens (no restrictions are being suggested for China and India and other grossly polluting nations), there exists skepticism. Also, the fact that it is now taught like a religion is rather disturbing. Any research or findings to the contrary is vilified.

In short, it's a complicated subject.
ummm, what you say is true but not focused on our current situation which is rate of escalation and the how's and whys. And it's not what some dispute, it's nearly 98% of the most educated minds in the scientific field agreeing on the problem at hand not just American scientist. This is the problem, information which is misdirected. Politicians have turned this into a political circus fuck! Politicians can't even handle the job they have on the hill, let alone try to play scientist.

What you will find in America is the right wing denying the issue, (Koch Brothers have a hand in this) you can read about the Koch brothers and why they would be supporters of denial http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koch_Industries , but there seems to be a recent trend on the right were many are starting to actually look at the problem in a whole new light.

When ever politics are involved I guarantee you there will be a divided opinion in the USA. Our nation is so divided and off track, it almost seems impossible to fix the problem of becoming a functioning nation once again.

I'm a proud independent, I could give a rats ass about party affiliation. I can tell you this, I will take my information from the most educated in the field, and that sure as hell isn't the fools sitting on the hill in Washington DC, being left or right.
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Old 07-10-2014, 11:10 AM   #29
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because politicians use it to push an agenda...both parties...and one party acts like man has a HUGE direct affect on it...phhttt

I certainly believe in climate change...and thats whats happening...many factors involved and our carbon footprint is part of it but not the huge part mr gore would have you believe...

the earth doesnt spin and revolve in perfect circles, climate changes...its happened many times and will continue to do so

the fact that the arctic shelf is melting into the ocean is HUGE...and soon the entire shelf will melt completely every year is scary...what that does to the ocean levels will have disasterous affect

I am all for cleaner fuels, and lessening our carbon footprint, but not at the disasterous economic collapse some crats would have us do
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Old 07-10-2014, 04:00 PM   #30
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Global climate models are not scientific because their predictions of the distant future, ie a hundred years from now, cannot be falsified, save for waiting around for decades to test the predictions. And to the extent that we are already in the future previously predicted by the models, they have essentially been falsified.
It seems to me that you are talking about falsifiability, in the sense that if a theory cannot be proven to be false, it is unscientific. Leaving aside my disagreement with that premise, my question is, what is it about climate models that make them unfalsifiable? I'm not yet allowed to post links but I can find instances where past climate models were tested and proven to be fairly accurate.
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